Prediction - Cruiseship Terminals - Vapourware?

We've seen a couple of "stunning" announcements in Queensland in recent weeks regarding new Cruiseship terminals for Townsville and the Gold Coast. This after many years of hounding by both municipalities but stunned silence from above.

Now suddenly BOTH are "going to happen"? I somehow doubt it - they seem too nicely packaged as diversionary ploys for the government during a bad news week/month/year as well as a "welcome to leadership" announcement for Anna Bligh.

Why the skepticism? Well, both are $1bn projects - so clearly we're talking about private funding, not government - but what makes it "so attractive" now? But what really put me off was the dodgy "artistic impressions" provided for the projects. Certainly the one in Townsville looked absolutely crap. I recall the original concept drawings made for the CBD Renewal taskforce back in 2001/02 - they looked "thought out" - these ones look like "ah, just throw in a bunch of canal estate homes and see what happens".



You see, the problem stems from location - we're talking about the outer breakwater - yet we have townhouses within metres of the rocks!!! Clearly not well thought out in a cyclone prone city. Yet the original concept kept this area as a buffer, with parkland at the very front and buffer zones for housing. It was actually a smart balance.



So that's why this crazy "impression" is just vapourware - it keep the punters happy (for now). But don't expect anything to happen for years (if ever).

Thoughts - Materialism & Individualism

Thanks to Mark Latham, I now have a reason to rant about these two topics.

Individualism has been growing rampant since the late '80s, but I think particularly so in the '90s when the ALP rolled out the public selloff bandwagon and folks jumped onto Telstra, et al (or was that the Libs?). Which concerns me because isn't this reflective of Latham's "Ladder of Opportunity"?

Anyhow, you see it in so many ways these days:

• Disregard for others (particularly Aboriginal people, boat people, immigrants, etc)
• Lack of empathy - I can remember a time when, if a company said it was going to lay-off a thousand people, there would be a general outcry. Today, people say "well, that should help their share price" and think nothing of it.
• A general unwillingness to engage in the community (volunteering, participation, etc)
• Favouring private schooling funding ahead of public schools.
• Expecting Uni Students to fund their educations "because they're going to earn all this money" - what rot.
• The apparent lack of concern shown about the sell off of Telstra!!!

And surely materialism is driving all of this. Our greed for more and more - a pandemic of affluenza - is driving us into American ideals at a rapid pace. It's all about me and what's in it for me and bugger anyone else who happens to get in my way.

I've mentioned it before (elsewhere), but look at kids today - they're wealthy. How do I know? Well, go into any shopping centre and tell me who the majority of shops are targeting? You, me? Not likely - its teenagers. And they're only doing it because they're cashed up.

So, why is this relevant? Well, because we're starting this cycle of greed at such an early stage in life - and that's a concern for the future because this trend is only going to get worse because these little suck ants are going to be so up themselves and so self-centred it beggars belief. Can you imagine what they are going to be like when they start buying shares? Actually, what am I saying, the probably have them already...

Question is, if we're suffering an affluenza pandemic, what's the cure?

To be honest, I don't think we're likely to see an anti-viral agent - no, I think we're going to see something big drag us all back to earth, like...

• Peak Oil?
• Dual Income Blowout (what happens when 2 earners isn't enough)?
• Property Crash?

History tells us that #3 will happen one day. I really worry about #2 because I think people will kill themselves in work (i.e. >1 jobs, etc) before they realise they're actually killing themselves. And besides, if you want that greed, you need to work harder and harder (don't you?).

But #1 worries me the most because as obvious as it is (to any fool with half a brain), we're so blissfully ignorant of it. Why is this a problem? Well, surely our government's WILL know about it and consider it has some merits (for goodness sakes, just look at Iraq). Only a fool would think we have a bottomless (oil) well so it has to peak someday. And when it does (and maybe it has already), the consequences are too scary for thought:

• Increasing oil wars?
• Living in denial about sustainability?
• Ignoring viable alternatives in favour of evil ones (e.g. Nuclear)?
• A changed society completely?

The only thing in its favour is the comment I heard recently (and I can't remember who) that said "our generation will witness the end of the motor vehicle". That great bastion of individualism, the personal car(s), is about to come to an end. And when that happens, we are going to be forced to communal transport systems (e.g. buses, trains, boats, etc) - any form of mass transit.

Problem is, at what cost? How many wars? How many will die? How much will our societies collapse? Yet, we all know its coming and (like all good pollies) they've buried OUR heads in the sand with OUR arses in the air waiting to be screwed...

Thoughts - Latham's Comments

I've just finished watching Mark Latham's comment on Enough Rope and a few thought's come to mind.

1. He clearly wasn't up to it. A lot of what he discussed was no real surprise, and I would have thought him a little niave to think it would be any different. Which makes the question put by Andrew all the more telling - "why run for leader"? Was he depressive? He certainly had mood swings - big swings. So perhaps he just wasn't leadership material.

2. That said, his closing comments were so empathetic to my own. He said that he really worried as Australian's rushed to be "materialistic and individualistic" and how that is killing the Australia we all love.

And yet, it is this feeling that I think many of us reflect - even the Nat's (perhaps particularly so) and disappoints me that he has nothing to offer in this regard. Are there solutions? Ummm, gee can I think of any? Well, there has to be and that's something I'll be putting my thoughts to in coming weeks.

Meanwhile, have we kissed the next election goodbye? Actually, an interesting thought - could the government rushed out Telstra to get out ahead of this mess? Who has most to gain though? There's no elections looming and it'll all blow over in a month or three. Actually, there may even be a degree of sympathy voting??? I doubt it somehow...

Prediction - Sale of Telstra Outcomes

Well, well, well. Poor old Barnaby couldn't hack it and sold us out. It will be interesting to hear who much the NFF have been paid off - talk about changing their tune very quickly.

Anyhow, as it now a fait a compli, lets consider the downstream effects.

1. Telstra Countrywide - Closed

An easy buy in and previously discussed. It may "continue" but it will be based out of a capital city (perhaps Adelaide to give the feel it still is in the country).

2. Massive Job Losses

I know a figure of 14,000 has been mooted - who knows what it will be but we all know it WILL happen. Again, look at the track record of the banks. Every time the market sneezes, they slash another 1000 jobs. They won't all go at once, but over 4-5 years...

3. "$2b Fund, What $2b Fund?"

The "up to $2b" hint in the initial legistation was the key here. You watch the pollies start backing out of the "promise" over the next 18 months. Remember Keating's L A W law tax cuts? What is it with people? Are they just ignorant?, do they have short-memories?, are they just thinking about their back pockets? But let it be known, if it get anywhere NEAR $2b I'll be amazed.

The other factor here is how much will actually get spent in the bush? You watch it get hung drawn and quartered for every pot-belly excuse for a problem in the future. Perhaps even for water problems et al...

4. $1b Infrastructure Boost

Another area to keep an eye on. It's going to cost the government a pretty penny to push this out as a prospectus - keep an eye on how much of the $1b gets drawn away in pre-Sales charges...

5. What About The Future???

And this to me is the biggest problem. Even if they score the whole $2b for future investment, what happens when the next BIG infrastrucure change happens in telephony? Back in the '80s Telecom funded the entire replacement of exchanges to become digital. What happens if we need to do that again? Will Telstra bankroll the deal? You've got to be joking...

So what does all this mean? Well folks, lets just hope everyone remembers WHICH party backed the sale (Libs) and WHICH party allowed it to happen (Nats) - and lets run 'em out of office ASAP.

What If: Two Aren't Enough

I missed most of a discussion this morning on Radio National but I think it was about families, being "more productive" and dual incomes. The jist of it was that we need to have dual income families to be more productive and provide for our families.

And it suddenly hit me - what happens when two incomes is not enough? Single income families sufficed for many years, now suddenly we can't survive without two. So, like all good capitalist practices where endless growth is the goal, how do we grow into the next phase? Is polygamy the next thing on the government agenda? Will it be lowering the age for children can work or perhaps making schooling only compulsory till primary?

Surely, like all crud policies bases on pure growth that there has to be a point when it's not sustainable. Question is, what happens when it hits?

Prediction - Telstra to Close Countrywide

If Telstra secures it's final sale (as appears to be a fait a compli) and once the last share is pried out of government hands, Telstra will abandon its Countrywide operations quicker than you can say "I thought Barnaby was going to protect all of this?".

Why? Well, why wouldn't it. As a commercial operation, the nearest "equivalence" we have to them in size would be the big banks. And how many big banks have retained a significant presence in regional and particularly rural Australia? So why would/should Telstra be any different.

You don't need to be a complete dill to realise that Countrywide is simply a political device to sure up support for the sale - and as a commercial entity, it has to make absolutely NO sense to operate when everything it does could AS EASILY be run out of Sydney, or Melbourne, or India...

Oh, why are people so ignorant to the obvious - it beggars belief sometimes...

Prediction - Nuclear Weapons in OZ (one day)

In the rash of debate surrounding the sudden acceptance of Nuclear Energy in this country, it would seem that it's only a matter of time before we see our first commercial nuclear power station on native soil.

My prediction is that soon after, we will have our own nuclear weapons. Why? Because the pollies can't help themselves (particularly the RIGHT).

But why might this happen? Well, apart from the (already socially stable) Scandinavian countries that have nuclear power stations, I'd have it a guess that nearly all other countries with nuclear power now have the bomb (or trying to get it). It's surely a natural progression. You have all this lovely radioactive leftovers that you have to do something with, so why not refine it to grab that lovely plutonium and drop 'em into bombs.

By then the RIGHT will have us all in a sweat about our nearest neighbour so it won't take much to push the right buttons (and create fear) that will allow them to take that step.

So, let it be known that we weren't warned. Would you trust the pollies with a big pile of plutonium in their care? I wouldn't...